Disturbance Five has formed a wide trough over the eastern Bay of Campeche, centred just north of the Yucatan Channel. Upper level shear is already taking a bite out of the convection cycle which should limit impact to scattered thunderstorms and squalls over the next day or two, but may have a chance of tropical development as it heads north. The general consensus on landfall is still vague, with most watching the area between Galveston and the Mississippi later this week. I’m sticking with Lake Charles for the time being, with heavy rainfall at the very least.

Well to the north, Disturbance Six has piped up to the south of Cape Hatteras, moving harmlessly seaward with a short development window before disappearing in a couple of days’ time.

Surprise Disturbance Seven has formed close to Trinidad moving west at a brisk 20 knots. Slightly higher speed, upper level shear and proximity to land should keep a lid on development but this will cast a wide band of thunderstorms and showers over the southern Caribbean.

Disturbance Seven is also new on screen today. Currently centred 500 miles south-east of the Cape Verde Islands, headed west at 15 knots, this is the first of the season’s traditional trans-Atlantic production line. Aerial imagery shows widespread thunderclouds but environmental conditions across the convergence zone are not particularly encouraging and tropical development prospects are fairly slim at the moment.

Stand easy.

Image Galaxy Publications