Let’s hear it for upper level wind shear.
From west to east;
Disturbance Five is currently centred 110 miles north-west of the Yucatan peninsula having drifted into the northern Bay of Campeche overnight. This still almost stationary and not yet showing much enthusiasm for getting under way. This will still track to the north and cross the oil lease areas but upper level wind shear is taking lumps out of the convection cycle and will prevent serious development, although a weak tropical storm before landfall late on Saturday is possible. There is still much chatter on the wires as to landfall. I have said Lake Charles all along and will stick with that and let the professionals work it out. There will be some strong squalls as this crosses the oilfields but the primary impact ashore will be from very heavy rain.
Disturbance Seven failed to complete the crossing of the southern Caribbean after encountering upper level wind shear.
Newbie Disturbance Nine has piped up some 500 miles east of the Windward Islands moving to the west-nor’west at 18 knots. This will meet upper level shear almost immediately and at worst will cause some heavy showers and the odd thunderstorm across the Lesser Antilles over the next day or so.
Storm BILL dissipated over cold water to the south east of Newfoundland and is now off radar.
Disturbance Eight is a broad tropical wave with a weak nominal centre now some two days steaming west-sou’west of the Cape Verde Islands, westbound at 20 knots. Thunderstorms have increased as it approaches a development window, but yet more upper level wind shear awaits which will put paid to any significant development.
Stand easy.
Image Reuters/Boyd McDonald