From west to east;
Disturbance Five is now getting slowly under way, centred around 200 miles north-east of the Yucatan peninsula, heading north but at little more than walking pace. Environmental conditions are marginally favourable for this speed up and become a tropical depression overnight and perhaps a weak tropical storm as it enters into the deep water areas off of Louisiana tomorrow. Upper level shear is still likely to prevent serious deepening further, and this intensity is expected to be maintained until landfall somewhere in south-western Louisiana on Saturday. Extended sea time should make this a rainmaker ashore.
Disturbance Eight is now three days west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west-nor’west at 18 knots. This is producing scattered squalls with the odd thunderstorm but wind shear is starting to impact vertical convection reducing development prospects.
Disturbance Nine is a tropical wave passing the Lesser Antilles, westbound at 20 knots. This will enter the eastern Caribbean today and then cross the central Caribbean through the coming weekend where windshear will have the last word.
Weather watch for Gulf of Mexico offshore oilfields, otherwise stand easy.
Image Berth Milton Snr.