From west to east;

Disturbance Ten is still loafing about in the south-western Gulf of Mexico, but starting to drift west and is expected to head for the coast of eastern Mexico tomorrow. Aside from some enhanced thunderstorm activity and some heavy rain, this is not expected to make a memorable landfall.

ELSA is now 200 miles south-east of Jamaica, racing west-nor’west at a blistering 30 knots. This uncharacteristic ground speed has taken its toll and ELSA has lost hurricane intensity and caused a significant offset of the convection column with the worst of the muck and filth to the east of the nominal centre. Despite weakening, this is still a strong tropical storm with a current hurricane intensity rating of 8 (3 for size and 5 for intensity) which translates to winds gusting 85 knots and a windfield radius of 150 miles. This continued high speed is most unusual and hard to gauge track and intensity, but may be at peak strength now. There is a general consensus – albeit highly speculative given ground speed and a track across Cuba to come – of a turn across the island and relaunch into the Gulf of Mexico, perhaps below tropical storm strength, and then a track parallel to the west coast of Florida with a landfall in north-west Florida on Tuesday evening. This is far from certain at this time.

Disturbance Fifteen is now 1100 miles east-sou’east of Trinidad moving to west at 16 knots. This is drawing dry Saharan air, (which is a late arrival into the convergence zone this season), which is inhibiting development.

Newbie Disturbance Sixteen has just slipped the African coast and is moving west at 16 knots. This also faces Saharan air which may impede development for the time being.

Stand by for tropical storm conditions in the north Caribbean with a long term watch needed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Image Jasper Duncombe