From west to east:
Disturbance Fifteen moved across Panama overnight and is now in the Pacific and off radar.
Disturbance Seventeen is still lounging around off the lower Texas Coast. This is cycling water from the Gulf over the coastal area between Corpus Christi and the Mexican border and may continue to do so for a couple of days but without tropical development.
Tropical Storm ELSA is moving rapidly now and subject to intense scrutiny and instant reporting as it passes along the coast of New Jersey, thus anything reported here will be quickly superceded. Currently 40 miles south of Long Island sprinting north-east at 30 knots, this has become a rainmaker for the north-east United States, with a risk of flash flooding in the New York area. There will be some tropical storm force gusts in exposed coastal areas, particularly within heavy thunderstorms, but ground speed is breaking the convection cycle now. The nominal centre will move over eastern Long Island later and then into New England but with the worst excesses offshore. After impacting New England, Elsa is forecast to move into Atlantic Canada as a weakening extratropical storm.
Disturbance Eighteen is now two days west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west at 20 knots. This is drawing on dry air and showing no signs of organisation.
Stand by for tropical storm gusts and flash flooding in the north-eastern United States from storm ELSA.
Image José Bénazéra