From west to east:
Tropical Storm IDA is currently 120 miles north west of Grand Cayman Island headed north-west at 14 knots and already strengthening. A temporary whiff of wind shear and interaction with Cuba are all that has prevented IDA from reaching hurricane intensity. The track will clip western Cuba tonight and by dawn, hurricane IDA will be in the Gulf of Mexico and heading inexorably north towards a landfall on the Louisiana coast between Vermilion Bay and the mouth of the Mississippi on Sunday afternoon as a category 3 hurricane. The current expectation of impact at landfall is a hurricane severity index rating of 20 out of 50 (9 for size and 11 for intensity) which equates to 100 knot winds and a windfield radius of 150 miles. My own view is that this is rather cautious and this will be a powerful and destructive event. It is inevitable that this will have an impact on offshore assets along its path with the first squalls reaching the southern deepwater lease areas as early as noon tomorrow then across the northwest Gulf from Garden Banks eastward. This is probably the last flying day before the storm reaches the northern Gulf Of Mexico.
Disturbance Thirty One is now centred 650 miles east of Bermuda nudging a touch north of east. As disturbances go, this is pretty rag-eared and unlikely to develop as things stand. Although a window of opportunity is opening, this is not expected to produce anything memorable before accelerating north east into Atlantic anonymity.
Disturbance Thirty Five is now 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands headed north-west at 10 knots. This is also looking disorganised and a turn north then eventually north-east is expected to see this off without impact.
Stand by for tropical storm conditions across western Cuba and into the Gulf Of Mexico.
Image Greg Lansky