There is seemingly an almost infinite number of sources reporting on hurricane IDA now, such that anything reported here is likely to be instantly superceeded. With that cautionary note in mind, hurricane IDA is 255 miles south-east of the Mississippi headed north-west at 12 knots and shaping up for landfall somewhere close to the mouth of the Mississippi early tomorrow evening local time as a powerful hurricane. An expected hurricane severity index rating at landfall of 23 (8 for size and 15 for intensity) translates into winds gusting 110 knots with a relatively small windfield radius of 150 miles, all adding up to a category four. With plentiful unchurned warm water and no upper level shear, I would personally prepare for a cat 5 with severe wind and tidal surge across southeast Louisiana and hurricane force winds as far inland as Baton Rouge. This is going to be a vicious storm.

Almost as an aside, tropical depression ten is now 650 miles east-nor’east of Barbados moving to the north-nor’west at 8 knots. This is expected to turn north today and strengthen into a weak tropical storm before entering an area of less favourable conditions on Sunday. This should lead to it weakening and ultimately dissipating without really bothering anyone.

Disturbance Thirty One is 740 miles east of Bermuda moving slowly east-nor’east. This is also shaping up to disappear without undue concern.

Stand by for hurricane intensity conditions approaching the coast of Louisiana from the south.

Image NASA/Hefner