From west to east:
IDA has weakened to a tropical depression over northeast Mississippi and is expected to merge with a frontal boundary within the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue spreading northeast, along the anticipated track with the heaviest rain from eastern West Virginia through to Pennsylvania, where up to 8 inches is possible.
Disturbance Thirty Eight is now in the far south-west Caribbean loafing around off the Mosquito coast of Nicaragua. This is expected to move slowly to the west-nor’west over the next few days before it moves over Belize later this week. While environmental conditions are favourable for development, land interaction is expected to hinder the system from producing anything deep and meaningful from a Gulf of Mexico viewpoint although there may be a slim chance of this forming a weak and short-lived tropical storm before heading ashore.
Tropical storm KATE continues buzzing around erratically in the west central Atlantic, now centred 1,100 miles south-east of Bermuda. KATE is currently drifting slowly north, with a north-westerly turn expected tomorrow, well clear of land. This still remains a pure fish storm and is on the cusp of being downgraded with further gradual weakening expected over the next few days.
The first of today’s newcomers is Disturbance Thirty Six, which is now around 500 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands moving west-nor’west at 14 knots which usually indicates an early turn out of the convergence zone into the sub-tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is well-organised and with a sweet spot of favourable environmental conditions ahead, this clearly has a twinkle in its eye. I would not normally rush into intensity forecasts but see no obstacles to this becoming a very powerful storm indeed, although only likely to bother fish and sailors.
The second of today’s newcomers is Sofia May Borley, daughter of my colleague Laura who is known to many of you. Baby Sofia was born this morning at 0620 UK time. Both Mother and baby are well. Clearly the naming committee was not tempted by IDA…..
Stand by for stormy conditions in the central Atlantic with further prospects along the Mosquito Coast and to the south and west of the Cape Verde Islands.