From west to east;
Disturbance Thirty Eight is still lounging around off Nicaragua, with no signs of shape to it as yet. This is expected to eventually move slowly west-nor’west across Central America and southern Mexico but reappear in the south-west Gulf of Mexico. There is much interaction with land ahead which will sap a good amount of the system’s energy, which is to be welcomed as conditions are still favourable in the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Depression IDA is now centred over eastern Kentucky accelerating to the northeast where a dominant frontal boundary is expected to absorb what remains of the cyclone. Nonetheless, this is still producing heavy rainfall which will spread across northern and eastern West Virginia through southern Pennsylvania to southern New England over the next 24 hours.
Weakening KATE is now little more than a depression centred 900 miles southeast of Bermuda moving to the north-nor’west at 10 knots. Environmental conditions for further survival are unfavourable and this is likely to be off radar before too long.
Tropical Depression Twelve beefed up and formed Tropical Storm LARRY overnight. Currently centred 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, this is expected to track to the west-nor’west over the next couple of days followed by a turn to the northwest. Environmental conditions are extremely positive for this to strengthen considerably through the upcoming weekend and this has all the makings of a major hurricane. With the exception of the Blind Sniper, none of the modellers’ tracks take this anywhere near the Caribbean or the United States but given the erratic tracks of some of the Atlantic storms this season, I would not dismiss a possible brush with Bermuda
Long term weather watch on east-central Atlantic and on south western Gulf of Mexico, otherwise stand easy.
Image Liza del Sierra