From west to east:
Disturbance Thirty Eight is still buzzing around the Mosquito coast of Nicaragua producing thunderstorm activity across the south-western Caribbean. This will move across portions of Central America, the Yucatan, and southern Mexico today before moving into the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf of Mexico overnight on Sunday. Despite warm water and wet air, upper-level winds should keep a lid on tropical development but this will produce increasing showers and thunderstorms spreading north over the western and north-western Gulf by the middle of next week
Disturbance Thirty Nine has piped up about half a day east of the Leeward Islands moving west at 14 knots. The disturbance will produce scattered thunderstorms across the southeast Caribbean and northern South America over the next few days as it moves west. There is only a slight chance of development over the southwestern Caribbean before it moves across Central America, hopefully.
Hurricane LARRY is currently centred 2,000 miles southeast of Bermuda headed west-nor’west at 16 knots. This currently has a hurricane severity index rating of 12 out of a possible 50 points (5 size, 7 intensity) but is deepening rapidly and is expected to reach 30 (14 size, 16 intensity) which would translate into winds over 100 knots and a windfield of over 150 miles. This is looking like a cat 4 or 5. LARRY is expected to become a powerful hurricane as it passes north and east of the Caribbean making its closest approach to Bermuda on Thursday. As things stand, the current forecast continues to keep the system well to the east of Bermuda but the gap is closing daily. Fingers crossed that it stays at sea.
Disturbance Forty has been identified south of the Cape Verde Islands moving west at 10 knots. Thunderstorm activity has decreased and it does not have a closed circulation. Upper-level conditions will become less favourable for development later this weekend as it moves into the eastern Atlantic, which is potentially good news.
Stand by for mucky days and nights at sea as LARRY digs in.
Image L Flynt