From west to east;
Disturbance Thirty Eight is now over the Yucatan peninsula headed northwest at 12 knots and is expected emerge into the Bay of Campeche this evening. Strong wind shear across the Bay of Campeche should keep the thunderstorm activity on the eastern side of the disturbance and prevent it from developing into anything deep and meaningful. Nonetheless, this will head into the deepwater lease areas off of south-eastern Louisiana which, given recent events will be a cause for concern, even with the reassurance that environmental conditions are only expected to be marginal for tropical development.
Disturbance Thirty Nine has opened out into a tropical wave centred over the northern coast of Colombia moving to the west at 15 knots. This will continue on this heading before moving into Central America on Tuesday night with little more to show than disorganised thunderstorms along its path, although environmental conditions are becoming marginally favourable for development, but more so when it reaches the Pacific.
Category Three Hurricane LARRY is probably at peak now some 1,250 miles south-east of Bermuda with marine observers reporting wind speeds gusting 130 knots – the take-off speed of a Boeing 737. With a windfield radius of 200 miles, which equates to a hurricane severity index rating of 25 (12 for size and 13 for intensity) this is blowing a hoolie for seafarers. Although ships have had plenty of time to adjust their passage plans, some will inevitably be within the windfield and experiencing significant unpleasantness. Little change in intensity is expected for this powerful hurricane over the next day or so, but thereafter, a slow weakening trend is expected. By the end of the week, LARRY should transition into an extratropical storm. The forecast track has been shifted a little closer to Bermuda, however the track is still far enough east of the islands such that the only impact is likely to be some strong gusts and high surf, with some impressive waves along the eastern seaboard by the middle of the week. Before reaching Newfoundland, LARRY is expected to turn more to the east, keeping the centre clear of Newfoundland all going well.
Disturbance Forty One is currently slipping the African coast moving west at 15 knots. Aerial images show a spread of scattered and disorganised thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected to move by to the south of the Cape Verde Islands tomorrow and then press on to the west before approaching the Lesser Antilles by next weekend where favourable conditions for cyclone development are expected, albeit speculative this far ahead.
More muck and filth for seafarers in the vicinity of LARRY, otherwise stand easy.
Image Riccardo Schicchi