From west to east:
Disturbance Thirty Eight has opened out into a trough of low pressure extending from the eastern Bay of Campeche north-nor’east to the tip of the Yucatan peninsula, just inside the Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper level shear will prevent this from drawing on the warm waters of the Gulf as it heads north into the central Gulf tonight. This disturbance is then expected to be steered into the deepwater lease areas off of southeast Louisiana then north-nor’east towards the Florida panhandle in an increasingly favourable environment as wind shear diminishes. Regardless of development, this will cross the south-eastern United States and relaunch into the Atlantic where further favourable environmental conditions await. This has the makings of a poacher’s cyclone with a potential stealth development along its track in either the north-eastern Gulf or Atlantic coast.
Disturbance Thirty Nine is centred in the far south-west Caribbean closing in on Panama at around 15 knots. I doubt we will see any development this side of central America but conditions in the eastern Pacific may provide a cyclone-positive environment.
Category Three Hurricane LARRY is still bullying fish and sailors in the Atlantic and is quite a bruiser. Currently just over 1,000 miles south-east of Bermuda headed north-west at 10 knots, LARRY is at peak now with a hurricane severity index rating of 25 (12 for size and 13 for intensity) which equates to winds of 110 gusting 135 knots with a windfield radius of 200 miles and is expected to maintain its strength for another 24 hours then weaken as it moves into an area of less favourable environmental conditions. By then, the weakening cyclone will turn to a northwest to northerly direction and pass well to the east of Bermuda on Thursday then accelerate towards the north-east, passing well to the east of Newfoundland
Disturbance Forty One is a day west of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west at 18 knots. This is expected to continue on this heading before approaching the Lesser Antilles next weekend where, as things stand, conditions for development are only marginal.
Stand by for a potential short-notice development along the coast of the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico and more filth in the vicinity of LARRY.
Image Keiran Lee