From west to east;
Disturbance Thirty Eight is now in the central Gulf of Mexico producing disorganised bands of shower and thunderstorm activity over the Gulf. A turn to the north-east track is expected tonight. This will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia overnight but the chances of a stealth development before it runs up the beach are fairly slim. Whether or nor it develops, will have the same outcome with some possibility of isolated flooding across Georgia and South Carolina before relaunching in the Atlantic on Friday.
Category Two hurricane LARRY continues to scream like a banshee at sea with 120 knot winds persisting over a windfield touching 200 miles. Currently at hurricane severity index rating 23 (13 for size and 10 for intensity), LARRY is now 650 miles south-east of Bermuda headed north-west at 12 knots, but expected to turn north soon and give the island a wide berth. That said, high surf and rip currents are expected for Bermuda and the US eastern seaboard over the next few days. After passing Bermuda, LARRY will accelerate to the north-nor’east taking the hurricane towards Newfoundland on Friday evening with a potential landfall over the Avalon peninsula as a tropical or extratropical cyclone with hurricane force gusts in places and some coastal flooding.
Disturbance Forty One is a touch short of midway between the African coast and the Caribbean moving west at 14 knots. This still has a whiff of dry air to it, keeping development in check and is likely to remain weak as it tracks to the west-nor’west over the next few days to eventually pass north of the Caribbean.
Disturbance Forty Three is passing over the Cape Verde Islands starting on the trek to the west at 14 knots. As things stand, this also looks to have weak prospects.
Stand by for hurricane intensity conditions in the west central Atlantic with a medium term watch for Newfoundland otherwise, stand easy.
Image Krzysztof Garwatowski