From west to east;
The stealth disturbance which crept across the Gulf of Mexico with a hint of threat to it became Tropical Storm MINDY shorty before landfall over the Florida panhandle overnight. This was fairly weak with a hurricane severity index rating of just 2 (1 each for size and intensity), with 40 knot winds and a windfield of just 35 miles. The strongest winds remained over open water and did not affect land areas, which is typical for a minimal tropical storm. MINDY weakened on landfall but did produce some heavy rain and isolated flash flooding and will remain as a tropical depression as it crosses south-eastern Georgia but is expected to regain tropical storm status over the Atlantic. As this stands, it is likely to head harmlessly seaward, but we shall see.
Disturbance Forty Four has formed in the western Caribbean along the northern coast of Honduras moving to the west-nor’west at 10 knots and is expected to cross Belize and the southern Yucatan before moving into the Bay of Campeche over the weekend which may present a window of opportunity. Watch needed on this one.
Category One Hurricane LARRY continues to weaken albeit slowly, and still packs a punch offshore with winds gusting 100 knots and a 200 mile windfield radius. Further slight weakening is expected over the next couple of days as it passes east of Bermuda and then accelerates toward Newfoundland at which time it is still expected to produce 80 knot winds. Landfall is currently expected over the western part of the Avalon peninsula increasing the risk of strong winds to the northeast coast of Nova Scotia. As things stand, power outages are possible, along with some wind and wave damage. Damage is becoming likely in the city of St. John where flash flooding is also expected.
Disturbance Forty One is mid-Atlantic now headed west at 13 knots. This is showing no signs of development nor does there appear to be much opportunity ahead for the next few days.
Disturbance Forty Three is a day west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west at 18 knots. This also has little sign of development opportunities in its path as things stand.
More muck and filth at sea in the vicinity of LARRY and potential for heavy rainfall across southern Georgia otherwise stand easy.
Image Richard Desmond