From west to east:
There are three storms on our screen this morning. The arrival of ROSE takes the annual account to 17 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Being only mid-September and with still some considerable period of the season ahead, it does seem as if most modellers will fall short of annual predictions. The eastern Atlantic does have some potential to produce fish storms, which are welcomed by all but seafarers, but the entire Gulf coast and eastern seaboard remain vulnerable for some time yet, unfortunately.
Tropical storm PETER is currently centred 455 miles east of Puerto Rico headed a tad north of west at 14 knots into diminishing wind shear. Weakening is expected as this brushes the Leeward Islands until Wednesday when a turn to the north is expected and then a track towards Bermuda later in the week in conditions which are becoming increasingly unfavourable for further cyclonic development. Actual track and intensity are hard to gauge this far in advance but with luck, Bermuda should dodge this bullet.
Extratropical Storm ODETTE has stalled some 200 miles SE of Newfoundland in the tail of an eastbound front and is still blowing a hoolie. ODETTE is expected to move slowly to the southeast over the next few days and may slip its tie to the frontal system and spin off as a subtropical or a tropical storm. There is no way at all of predicting track or intensity with any accuracy but it remains almost certain that this will not impact land.
In the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Fishstorm ROSE is 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands headed west-nor’west at 15 knots. This has intensified based upon satellite intensity estimates with winds gusting 50 knots. Some additional intensification is expected over the next day or so but thereafter, increasing wind shear and cooler waters should lead to weakening. This will remain over open water with no threat to land.
Disturbance Forty Eight is centred 250 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands moving west at 10 knots. This motion should continue for the next few days, followed by a turn to the west-nor’west on to a track which would take the system north of the Caribbean around the middle of next week. Early days to say with certainty, but I do think this has a twinkle in its eye.
Stand by for stormy conditions at sea to the north-east of the Caribbean, in the north-western Atlantic and to the north west of the Cape Verde Islands, otherwise stand easy.
Image Larry Flynt