From west to east:
Tropical Storm PETER is now centred around 230 miles north-east of Puerto Rico moving to the west-nor’west at 10 knots producing winds gusting 55 knots. Strong upper level shear continues to buffet the vertical convection column keeping the storm relatively weak. This trend will continue as the storm tracks to the west-nor’west keeping the worst of the muck and filth well to the east of the nominal centre, thus well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. After passing north of the north-eastern Caribbean, PETER is expected to turn with a range of tracks either side of due north being bandied about, along with a possibility of intensification. This reintroduces a threat to Bermuda next weekend where the variety of predictions means storm cones could be up and down almost hourly albeit some time to go yet.
Extratropical Storm ODETTE is centred around 575 miles south-east of Newfoundland, wobbling furiously as it extricates itself from an eastbound frontal system. ODETTE is expected to move to the south-east over the next few days and may rejuvenate into a full blooded tropical storm again, but well clear of land and will in all likelihood only entertain fish and sailors.
Tropical Storm ROSE is now centred approximately 750 miles west-nor’west of the Cape Verde Islands. ROSE is headed north-west at 10 knots near 10 mph and is likely to continue this track away from the convergence zone into eastern Atlantic anonymity, far from land. Another fish storm racked up is, mathematically at least, one less threat to the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico or eastern seaboard.
Conversely, Disturbance Forty Eight may present a threat to the Caribbean. Currently 300 miles south-sou’west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving west at 10 knots, a few respected modellers are positioning this close to the north of, or even into the northern Caribbean in around a week from now. As environmental conditions ahead are increasingly cyclone-positive, this may well become our next named storm. Early days so highly speculative for now.
Tropical storm force winds for the north-eastern Caribbean, north-west Atlantic, north east of the Cape Verde Islands and a long term watch on and off for Bermuda otherwise stand easy.
Image Kristen Bjorn