Category Four hurricane SAM maintaining intensity and increasing footprint.
From west to east:
Despite the long-awaited wobble, category four hurricane SAM has barely weakened overnight, indeed one aerial reconnaissance observer has recorded a slight increase in wind speed in the storm’s north-eastern eyewall. Currently centred 450 miles south-sou’east of Bermuda, this remains a brute of a storm. The windfield is beginning to widen as the storm starts its curve to the north (and later north-east) and the groundspeed has increased to 14 knots. This gives the cyclone a hurricane severity index rating of 28 out 50 points (11 for size and 17 for intensity) calculated from winds of 125 knots gusting to 150 knots with a tropical storm force windfield radius of 200 miles. This will increase significantly after the turn, perhaps up to 300 miles. SAM will pass well to the east of Bermuda on Saturday evening but the increase in windfield radius means that the storm generated swell – life-threatening in places – will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles including Puerto Rico over the weekend. The swell will also reach Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Tropical storm force winds will reach Bermuda tonight.
Disturbance Fifty is now around 800 miles east of the Windward Islands moving west at 10 knots, buffeted by upper level shear. The disturbance remains disorganised and environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavourable for development over the next few days as it moves towards and into the south-eastern Caribbean.
Tropical storm VICTOR is centred 500 miles south-west of the Cape Verde Islands headed west-nor’west at 10 knots. This fish storm is showing signs of increased organisation as thunderstorms expand around the nominal centre and all the signs are that VICTOR will reach hurricane intensity later today. Over the coming weekend a slug of dry air and increasing wind shear will lead to gradual weakening. VICTOR will turn to the northwest Sunday as it heads into Atlantic anonymity, only bothering fish and sailors.
Stand by for continued hurricane conditions at sea in both east and west Atlantic, and for tropical storm force winds and swell brushing Bermuda.