From west to east;
Open trough Disturbance Fifty Four extends north from the south coast of the Dominican Republic for several hundred miles across the Bahamas into the open Atlantic. The disturbance is currently loafing around aimlessly but looks likely to get under way soon and accelerate to the northeast. There is still a slight development opportunity towards Friday but will in any event only form a fish storm, if indeed it forms anything at all.
Disturbance Fifty Five is now just inside the north-eastern Caribbean, in the lee of the Virgin Islands moving to the north-west at 10 knots. This is expected to merge with the tail end of Fifty Four producing nothing more than a few thunderstorms across Puerto Rico over the next few days.
A few determined optimists have written and asked if the current ‘stand easy’ thread is indicative of the season drawing to an end. Believe me, I wish it was. There is still a significant amount of rising air and there are record high sea water temperatures across the reporting area. On the plus side, frontal activity coming from the west could produce sufficient upper level wind shear from keeping the most determined disturbance from developing anything deep and meaningful, but this is far from certain. I would not expect anything of substance to develop over the next 5-7 days, but is the season over? I very much doubt it. Thanks to those who have been in touch. Always appreciated.
Image Richard Desmond