In order to reduce the amount of flotsam which washes up with every internet tide, I had undertaken not to start daily reporting until ALEX bobbed up. Over the last week or two, I’ve happily ignored a few pointless flurries off the eastern seaboard and far south-western Caribbean, however developments in the eastern Pacific may have an impact on our side of the fence. This would seem as good a time as any to ring down Full Away On Passage on our 2022 Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico season daily bulletin.

Category Three hurricane AGATHA is approaching the Pacific coast of Mexico at peak intensity and expected to make a landfall later today around Puerto Escondido (which to the unfamiliar, is around 200 miles east along the coast from Acapulco). This is a wiry little beast with a tropical storm diameter of just 85 miles but blowing a hoolie around the eye with winds gusting 130 knots. This is comparable take off speed of a Boeing 777, which will be bad news at landfall, although some weakening is expected this afternoon as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Despite very strong winds, the worst of the storm’s excesses are likely to be from heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the region before, during and after landfall.

What remains of AGATHA after the shredding effect of the Mexican mountains is expected to enter our area of interest, rallying in the southern Bay of Campeche overnight on Tuesday before heading east across the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday as a tropical disturbance. As things stand, significant development is not expected but ex-AGATHA may spread heavy rain and some gusty squalls across southern Florida (including the Florida Straits) and western Cuba on Friday.

Stand by for hurricane conditions across southern Mexico, otherwise stand easy.