Florida storm development deferred by upper level wind shear
Upper level wind shear prevented Disturbance One from developing as anticipated, and it now seems this will cross the Florida peninsula before becoming a tropical storm. The nominal centre of the disturbance is now ashore between Fort Myers and Naples producing heavy rains, storm force wind gusts up to 45 knots, and isolated severe storms with tornadoes. This is moving north-east at 16 knots and will cross the western coast to enter the Atlantic tonight, by which time the impact of upper level shear will be reduced and development is expected. Regardless as to precisely when this will beef up, the impact of tropical storm conditions for Florida and the northwest Bahamas will remain the same. This will pass north of Bermuda on Monday, close enough for winds of tropical storm strength to be felt ashore before heading harmlessly seaward.
Disturbance Two is passing southeast of Bermuda and weakening.
Stand by for tropical storm conditions increasing over Florida and the Bahamas.
Image Kyōko Aizome