Disturbance Three is virtually at a standstill off the coast of Nicaragua but beginning to shape up for a northerly track towards the Yucatan peninsula. This low pressure cell is expected to relaunch in the Bay of Campeche overnight on Sunday. Most commentators have this turning early and making a final landfall near Veracruz bringing heavy rainfall but not seaborne long enough to develop significantly.

A recent analysis of Pacific water temperatures has caused a flurry of interest in storm numbers amongst the modellers. It is now predicted that there will be an extended period of La Niña (falling air in Pacific/rising air in the Atlantic = more storms) causing an increase in predicted numbers. (I seem to recall someone writing this before the season began, but can’t recall which perceptive agency made that assumption, but it must have been one of the better and more modest ones. Hang on. It has just come back to me. Yes, it was us.) Figures are now being bandied about rising to an approximate average of 22 named storms, 9 hurricanes of which 5 will be major. Our stab at 22, 10 and 6 remains unchanged. Not good news.

Stand easy.