Long term watch on possible storm development
From west to east:
Disturbance Four is in its final hours as it nears the coast of Panama. Aside from heavy rainfall and the off thunderstorm, this will not be a remarkable meteorological event.
Aerial imagery of the nominal centre of Disturbance Five some 500 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon would indicate that this has lost shape and is probably done and dusted.
Disturbance Six is now centred 600 miles south-sou’west of the Cape Verde Islands headed west at around 14 knots. As we commented yesterday, cyclone-fertility conditions are going through something of a roller coaster on the western side of the convergence zone at the moment. Negative yesterday, positive today. Tomorrow, it may change again. As things stand, if this survives the crossing and if environmental conditions remain unchanged, this could become a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Windward Islands on Wednesday. Certainly, the Canadian guy has thrown his hat in the ring already. Irrespective of development, this will be a rainmaker for the easternmost the islands of Caribbean during the middle of next week. Now if this becomes a named storm, then cyclone-fertile conditions in the Caribbean as it heads west are fairly stable and significant development may then be a possibility. For me, this is far too early to speculate or blow the dust off the hurricane response plans, but we should keep a weather eye on this one.
Stand easy.