Disturbance Four has beached in Panama and is now off our radar.

Disturbance Six is now centred 1250 miles east-sou’east of Trinidad headed a sniff north of west at 15 knots passing through southernmost Windward Islands overnight on Tuesday. This is showing signs of surface organisation with showers and thunderstorm activity increasing near the developing centre. Conditions will gradually become more favourable for development and may become a tropical storm prior to moving into the Caribbean. Regardless of development, enhanced wind and rain is likely for the Windward Islands as the system passes. Thereafter, conditions are becoming more cyclone-fertile across the southern Caribbean and this may have a significant footprint as it treks west.

Disturbance Seven has piped up 500 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. Aerial imagery shows a tatty formation with disorganised thunderstorm activity associated with it but conditions ahead could become more favourable as it tracks towards the west-nor’west and may bring a risk of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands later in the coming week.

Stand easy.